Tichitarisa shure mugore ra2024, kudiwa kwemuno kwaive kusina kusimba, kuwanikwa kwakaramba kuripo zvakanyanya, uye mutengo wesimbi wepari zvino waive pasi pekumanikidzwa kudzikira pasi pemaitiro ekusawanikwa kwesimbi nezvinodiwa. Mitemo yemuno neyekunze kwenyika yakapa simba rekusimudzira zvishoma nezvishoma.
Ongororo yeMafambiro eMitengo yeZvicherwa muna 2024
Mafambiro ese emitengo yesimbi muna 2024 anogona kukamurwa kuita zvikamu zvina.
Chikamu Chekutanga: Muchikamu chekutanga cha2024, tarisiro dzemitemo yemuno dzakazadzikiswa, kukosha kwehurongwa hweblack system kwakadzokera shure, nguva yekudzikisa mubereko yeFederal Reserve yakanonoka kakawanda, zvinangwa zveNational Two Sessions zvaienderana nezvaitarisirwa, mwero wekukura kweGDP (gross domestic product), mwero wekushomeka kwemari, uye 1 trillion yuan special treasury bond hazvina kupfuura zvaitarisirwa pamusika, kudiwa kwekupedzisira kwaive kusina kusimba, kudzoserwa kwekudiwa kwesimbi yemuno kwaive kushoma pane zvaitarisirwa, pamwe chete nekuwedzera kukuru kwegore negore kwekutumirwa kwesimbi dzekunze kwenyika, kubuda kwesimbi yemuno kwakawedzera kupfuura mwaka, uye kukosha kwesimbi yemuno kwaive kwakakwira. Pasi pepfungwa yemhinduro dzisina kunaka, mutengo wesimbi yemuno wakadzikira nekukurumidza kupfuura zvaitarisirwa.
Danho rechipiri: kubva pakutanga kwaKubvumbi 2024 kusvika kumagumo kwaChivabvu 2024, indasitiri "yakaratidza mhinduro dzakanaka", mukana wekupa nekudiwa wakawedzera, kukosha kwe "black series" mukota yekutanga kwakadzikira zvakanyanya, tarisiro ye inflation yepasi rose yakatanga kukwira munaKubvumbi, kudiwa kwenzvimbo dzemukati menyika kwakawedzera uye kwakakwira kupfuura zvaitarisirwa, pasi pechiyero chitsva chekuwanikwa kwesimbi nekudiwa, purofiti yenzvimbo yemabhizinesi esimbi yakawedzera zvakanyanya, kudiwa kwemunyika kwakaramba kuchikwira, kuwanikwa kwemigodhi yekunze kwenyika kwakadzikira mwedzi nemwedzi, mukana wekuwana nekudiwa kwesimbi wakawedzera, pamwe chete nemutemo we "May 17" wezvivakwa zvitsva, chirongwa chekuwedzera che "treasury bond incremental policy stimulation", mutengo wesimbi wepari zvino wakakwira padanho idzva.
Chikamu Chechitatu: Kubva muna Chivabvu 23, 2024 kusvika Gunyana 23, 2024, simbi yesimbi yakaratidza maitiro ekuwanikwa kwakasimba uye kudiwa kusina kusimba. Munguva yehurongwa hwemacro policy, kutengeserana kwemusika kwakaratidza kusasimba kwechokwadi, uye mutengo wesimbi wepari zvino wakakwira uye wakadzikira kwechinguva. Nekushandiswa kwemitemo yakanaka yezvivakwa pakupera kwaChivabvu uye tarisiro yekuderera kwekuda kwakakonzerwa nemitemo yesimbi isina kusimba, mutengo wesimbi wepari zvino unoramba uchidzikira. Nekuburitswa kwemitemo yakadzama yekugadzirisa mitemo yezvivakwa mumaguta akawanda munyika yese, pamwe chete neState Council yakaburitsa "2024-2025 Energy Conservation and Carbon Reduction Action Plan" musi waChivabvu 30, kushandiswa kwakasimba kwekutsiva simba rekugadzira simbi, uye kuramba uchidzora kugadzirwa kwesimbi isina kusimba muna 2024, tarisiro yemusika yekuderera kudiki kwekudiwa kwesimbi yesimbi yatanga kusimba. Kubva pakati paChikunguru kusvika Nyamavhuvhu 19, kuferefeta "kubhadhara kunze kwenyika" uye mitemo yenyika dzakawanda yekurwisa kurasa marara pasimbi inotengeswa kunze kwenyika zvakaderedza kukosha kwesimbi nhema. Vatengesi vanyanya kutarisisa kutengesa rebar yekare, zvichiwedzera kushaya tariro mumusika. Purofiti yemakambani esimbi yadzikira nekukurumidza, migodhi yekune dzimwe nyika yakaramba ichiwanikwa yakawanda, huwandu hwezvinhu zviri muchiteshi hwaramba huchikwira, uye mitengo yesimbi yakaramba ichidzikira kusvika Gunyana 23.
Danho rechina: Tarisiro dzekuwedzera dzeMacro dzinowedzera simba, kudiwa kwemuno kunotsigira mitengo, tarisiro dzemuno nedzekunze dzinoenderana, uye mapoka evatema anowana kukwira kukuru. Musi wa19 Gunyana, Federal Reserve yakaderedza mitengo yemubereko ne50 basis points kutanga kutenderera kwekuderedzwa kwemubereko, uye hupfumi hwekunze hwakaramba hwakasimba; Musi wa24 Gunyana, People's Bank of China, State Administration for Financial Regulation, neChina Securities Regulatory Commission vakaita musangano nevatori venhau kuti vatangezve nhevedzano yemitemo yekukurudzira. Mutemo wemari waive wakasimba mukuwedzera, ne "miseve mitatu" yekudzikiswa kwereserve requirement ratio, kudzikiswa kwemubereko, uye kudzikiswa kwemubereko wezvikwereti zvedzimba zviripo. Mutemo uyu wakazadzisa zvaitarisirwa uye wakapfuura zvaitarisirwa, pamwe chete netarisiro yekuzadzwa kwesimbi yesimbi isati yasvika zororo reNational Day uye kukwira kwekuda kwekupedzisira mushure mezororo, zvichikonzera kukwira kwemitengo yezvinhu zvemuno. Nekuzadzikiswa kwetariro huru musi wa8 Gumiguru, mitengo yeblack series yakasvika pakakwirira kwenguva pfupi, uye purofiti yemidziyo yemuno yaive yakakura, iyo yakaramba ichienderera mberi nekusimba kwekuda kwesimbi yesimbi. Pamwe chete nekudzikira kwezvicherwa zvekunze kwenyika muchikamu chechina chegore, kuenzana kwehuwandu hwesimbi nezvinodiwa kwaive kwakaderera kwenguva pfupi, zvichitsigira kuti mitengo irambe yakakwira.
Mafungiro emafambiro emusika wesimbi muna 2025
Munyori anotenda kuti maitiro ekuwanikwa kwakasimba uye kudiwa kushoma kwesimbi muna 2025 zvakaoma kuchinja, uye nzvimbo yemitengo icharamba ichidzika.
Panyaya yekuwanikwa kwezvinhu, kuwedzera kwepasi rose kwesimbi yesimbi panosvika gore ra2025 kuchave matani angangoita mamiriyoni makumi matanhatu nemapfumbamwe (tichifunga kuti mitengo icharamba iri pamusoro pemadhora zana patani). Zvichienderana nehuwandu hwekutumira zvinhu, kuwedzera kwese kwesimbi yesimbi yemuno panosvika gore ra2025 kunofungidzirwa kuva matani angangoita mamiriyoni makumi mana nematanhatu nemapfumbamwe, kusanganisira matani mamiriyoni makumi maviri nerimwe nemazana matanhatu nemashanu kubva mumigodhi mikuru, matani mamiriyoni gumi nemashanu nemakumi maviri nemashanu kubva mumigodhi isiri mikuru, uye matani mamiriyoni gumi kubva mumigodhi mikuru.
Panyaya yekudiwa kwesimbi, kudiwa kwesimbi yekunze kucharamba kuchiderera muna 2025. Nekukura nekukurumidza kwekugadzira zvinhu nemaindasitiri ari kubuda muChina, simbi yemumaindasitiri iri kuratidza kukura kwepamusoro-soro, kwakakura, uye kwakanyanya. Pari zvino, mamiriro ekudiwa kwesimbi ari nani pane musika wezvivakwa, uye nzvimbo huru dzekuomerwa nenjodzi dziri mukutengeswa kwezvivakwa nemaindasitiri ekugadzira zvinhu kunze kwenyika. Zvinofungidzirwa kuti kudiwa kwesimbi yemuno kunogona kudzikira neinenge 1% panosvika 2025.
Panyaya yemutengo, kuwanikwa nekudiwa kwesimbi kucharamba kwakasununguka muna 2025, uye nzvimbo yemitengo icharamba ichidzika kusvika pamadhora zana patani, nekuchinja kwemitengo kubva pamadhora makumi masere nemashanu patani kusvika pamadhora zana negumi nemashanu patani. Kuwedzera kwemitemo mikuru muhafu yekutanga yegore kwaive kwakanyatsowanda, uye kuwedzera kwemidziyo kwaive kwakanyanya muhafu yechipiri yegore. Mitengo yese inowanzo kuve yakakwira pamberi uye yakaderera kumashure, uye musiyano wemitengo pakati pemwedzi yesimbi nemisika yemuno neyekunze unogona kuderedzwa zvakanyanya. Kana mutengo ukasvika pamucheto wakaderera, uchava nemhedzisiro yekudzvinyirirwa pazvicherwa zvinogadzirwa munyika nezviri kunze kwenyika nemitengo yepamusoro yekugadzira, uye pachava nesimba rinokwira remitengo.
Muchidimbu, munyori anokurudzira kushanda mukati memhando yakati, kunyanya kumabhizinesi ekugadzira ane mitengo yakawanda yakavharirwa, kuwedzera nzvimbo dzavo dzekudzivirira zvinhu zvisina kugadzirwa munzvimbo yakaderera uye kuvhara purofiti yezvigadzirwa.