Mukutanga kwaGumiguru, mitengo yesimbi yakasangana nekudzokororwa kwenguva pfupi, zvakanyanya nekuda kwekuvandudzwa kunotarisirwa mumiganho yekudiwa uye kukurudzira kwekukwira kwemitengo yekutakura zvinhu mugungwa.Zvisinei, sezvo zvigayo zvesimbi zvakasimbisa ganhuriro dzazvo dzokugadzira uye panguva imwe cheteyo, mitengo yekutakura zvinhu mugungwa yakaderera zvikuru.Mutengo wacho wakaderera patsva mukati megore.Mukutaura kwemitengo yakakwana, mutengo wesimbi gore rino wakawa nepamusoro pe50% kubva pakakwirira, uye mutengo wakatodonha.Nekudaro, kubva pamaonero ekupa uye kudiwa zvakakosha, ikozvino port inventory yasvika padanho repamusoro panguva imwe chete mumakore mana apfuura.Sezvo chiteshi chengarava chiri kuramba chichiunganidza , Gore rino risina simba resimbi ore mitengo ichava yakaoma kuchinja.
Kutakurwa kwezvimbambaira kuchiri kuwedzera
Muna Gumiguru, kutumirwa kwesimbi muAustralia neBrazil kwakadzikira gore negore uye mwedzi nemwedzi.Kune rimwe divi, zvaive zvichikonzerwa nekugadziriswa kwemugodhi.Kune rumwe rutivi, kutakura zvinhu mugungwa rakakwirira kwakakanganisa kutumirwa kwesimbi mune mamwe migodhi kusvika pamwero wakati.Zvisineyi, maererano nekuverenga kwezvinangwa zvegore rezvemari, migodhi mina mikuru inopihwa muchikamu chechina ichange ichiwedzera gore negore uye mwedzi nemwedzi.
Kuburitswa kwesimbi yeRio Tinto muchikamu chechitatu kwakadzikira nemamiriyoni maviri nemazana matanhatu ematani gore negore.Sekureva kwechinangwa cheRio Tinto chepagore chinodzikira matani emamiriyoni mazana matatu nemakumi maviri, chikamu chechina chinobuda chichawedzera nemiriyoni imwe yematani kubva pachikamu chakapfuura, kuderera kwegore negore kwematani miriyoni imwe nemazana mashanu.BHP's iron ore yakabuda muchikamu chechitatu yakadzikira ne3.5 miriyoni matani gore negore, asi yakaramba yaitarisira gore remari yematani 278 miriyoni-288 matani isina kuchinjwa, uye inotarisirwa kuvandudza mukota yechina.FMG yakatumirwa zvakanaka muzvikamu zvitatu zvekutanga.Muchikamu chechitatu, zvakabuda zvakawedzera ne2.4 mamiriyoni ematani gore negore.Mugore rezvemari 2022 (Chikunguru 2021-Chikumi 2022), iyo iron ore kutakura kutungamira kwakachengetwa mukati meiyo 180 miriyoni kusvika 185 miriyoni matani.Kuwedzera kuduku kunotarisirwawo muchikamu chechina.Kugadzirwa kwaVale muchikamu chechitatu kwakawedzera ne750,000 matani gore negore.Maererano nekuverenga kwematani emamiriyoni e325 kwegore rose, kugadzirwa kwechikamu chechina kwakawedzera nemamiriyoni maviri emamiriyoni kubva kukota yapfuura, iyo ichawedzera nemamiriyoni manomwe ematani gore negore.Kazhinji, kuburitswa kwesimbi kwemigodhi mina mikuru muchikamu chechina kuchawedzera nematani anopfuura mamiriyoni matatu pamwedzi nemwedzi uye anopfuura matani mamiriyoni mashanu gore negore.Kunyange zvazvo mitengo yakaderera ichikanganisa kutakura zvimbambaira, migodhi yemazuva ose ichiri kuita pundutso uye inotarisirwa kuzadzikisa zvinangwa zvayo zvegore rose pasina kudzikisa nemaune kutengeswa kwesimbi.
Panyaya yemigodhi isiri-yakawanda, kutanga kubva muhafu yechipiri yegore, kutengwa kwesimbi kweChina kubva kune dzimwe nyika dzisiri dzepamusoro kwakadzikira zvakanyanya gore negore.Mutengo wesimbi wakaderera, uye kubuda kweimwe simbi inodhura kwakatanga kudzikira.Saka zvinotarisirwa kuti kutengwa kwezvicherwa zvisiri zvemazuva ano kucharamba kuchidzikira gore negore, asi kukanganiswa kwese kunenge kusingazonyanya.
Panyaya yemigodhi yemumba, kunyangwe kufarira kwekugadzira kwemigodhi yemumba kuri kudererawo, tichifunga kuti zvirambidzo zvekugadzira munaGunyana zvine simba kwazvo, iyo mwedzi nemwedzi simbi inobuda mukota yechina haingave iri shoma pane iyo munaGunyana.Naizvozvo, migodhi yemumba inotarisirwa kuramba yakadzikama muchikamu chechina, uye gore negore kuderedzwa kwematani anosvika 5 miriyoni.
Kazhinji, pakava nekuwedzera kwekutumirwa kwemigodhi yakawanda muchikamu chechina.Panguva imwecheteyo, tichifunga kuti mhiri kwemakungwa kugadzirwa kwesimbi yenguruve kuri kudererawo mwedzi-pa-mwedzi, chikamu chesimbi chakatumirwa kuChina chinotarisirwa kudzoka.Naizvozvo, ore yesimbi inotumirwa kuChina ichawedzera gore-negore uye mwedzi-pamwedzi.Migodhi isiri-yakawanda uye migodhi yemumba inogona kunge ichidzikira gore negore.Zvisinei, kamuri yekuderera kwemwedzi-pa-mwedzi ishoma.Zvose zvinowanikwa muchikamu chechina zvichiri kuwedzera.
Port inventory inochengetwa mumamiriro ekuneta
Iko kuunganidzwa kwesimbi mune zviteshi muhafu yepiri yegore kwakanyatsojeka, iyo inoratidzawo kusununguka uye kudiwa kwesimbi ore.Kubva muna Gumiguru, chiyero chekuunganidza chakawedzera zvakare.Kubva muna Gumiguru 29, chiteshi chesimbi chesimbi chakawedzera kusvika pamamiriyoni zana nemakumi mana nemashanu, kukosha kwepamusoro panguva imwe chete mumakore mana apfuura.Zvinoenderana nekuverenga kwedhata rekupa, iyo chiteshi chengarava inogona kusvika 155 miriyoni matani pakupera kwegore rino, uye kudzvanywa ipapo kuchave kwakanyanya panguva iyoyo.
Iko mari-yedivi rutsigiro inotanga kupera simba
Mukutanga kwaGumiguru, pakanga paine kudzokororwa kudiki mumusika wesimbi, pamwe nekuda kwekukwira kwemitengo yekutakura zvinhu mugungwa.Panguva iyoyo, kutakura kweC3 kubva kuTubarao, Brazil kuenda kuQingdao, China yaimbova pedyo neUS $ 50 / ton, asi pane kuderera kukuru munguva pfupi yapfuura.Kutakura kwadzikira kusvika paUS$24/ton musi wa3 Mbudzi, uye kutakura zvinhu mugungwa kubva kuWestern Australia kuenda kuChina kwaingova US$12 chete./Toni.Mutengo wesimbi mumigodhi yemazuva ose uri pasi peUS$30/tani.Naizvozvo, kunyangwe mutengo wesimbi wakadzikira zvakanyanya, mugodhi wacho uchiri kuita pundutso, uye tsigiro yerutivi inodhura ichave isina kusimba.
Pakati pese, kunyangwe mutengo wesimbi warova patsva mukati megore, pachine nzvimbo pazasi kana iri kubva pakuona kwekupa uye kudiwa zvakakosha kana kubva kudivi remutengo.Zvinotarisirwa kuti mamiriro asina simba acharamba asina kuchinja gore rino.Zvisinei, zvinotarisirwa kuti dhisiki remangwana resimbi remangwana rinogona kuva nerutsigiro pedyo ne500 yuan/ton, nokuti mutengo wepoda wakakosha unoenderana nedhisiki mutengo we500 yuan/ton uri pedyo ne320 yuan/ton, inova. padyo kusvika padanho rakaderera mumakore mana.Izvi zvichavawo nerutsigiro mumutengo.Panguva imwecheteyo, pasi pemashure kuti purofiti patani yesimbi disk ichiri yakakwira, panogona kunge paine mari yekupfupisa snail ore ratio, iyo inotsigira zvisina kunanga mutengo wesimbi ore.